MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION
Slide 13
Can the warming be explained naturally?
Slide 16
2012
Predicted effect on temperature
Natural forcings =
volcanoes, solar
cycles
Man made forcings =
greenhouse gas
emissions, aerosol
emissions
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16
Slide 14
What would one expect to happen with
global warming?
This is a shift in the mean state of the atmosphere
→ climate change
A warmer atmosphere means a warmer ocean
Ice melt leads to sea level rise
The complex weather system is shifted into a new
state
The weather will change (i.e. some places wetter/some drier,
some warmer and some cooler)
Slide 17
14
Predicted effect on sea level rise
This is the amount the sea level is forecast to rise before
2100 under the A1B scenario
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Slide 15
What‟s going to happen in the future?
We are still emitting green house gases, so the atmosphere will continue to
warm
Slide 18
How much depends on the future scenario you choose
15
Predicted effect on precipitation
Much more uncertain due to the complex weather
systems on Earth
Some areas expected to get wetter & some drier but
climate models disagree about regional effects.
A warmer atmosphere in general will intensify the
water cycle, leading to more intense storms.
This is the cutting edge of climate science!
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A Training Manual on Use of Climate Information and Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment for
Agricultural Extension Staff in Zimbabwe
Page 108