MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION
APPENDIX 5
2012
Slide 1
Providing useful climate
information to farmers
Working out and communicating
probabilities and risks
Slide 4
Communicating probabilities of
climate events with farmers
The past can help to predict
ie it can be used to give us the
probability eg ....... of weather next
year
e.g. the probability / chance of there being a drought
next year
Assuming that climate has not changed drastically (ie that
there is no clear pattern of change)
Approximate probabilities can be useful
Slide 2
AIM – To help farmers with planning and
decisions, by providing information they would
like
• In the following sessions we will cover:
– What is meant by probability (or risk)?
– What would farmers like to know the
probabilities of?
– Ways of working out and communicating
probabilities with farmers
– How we can add value to the Seasonal
Climate Forecast and forecasts of El Nino
and La Nina years
Slide 5
Farmers can work them out!
Bulawayo rainfall (1951-1990)
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Slide 3
What are probabilities?
• Probability is the same as CHANCE
• Examples .......
Tossing a coin – A probability / chance of 1 out
of 2 of getting a head i.e. ½
Throwing a dice – A probability / chance of 1
out of 6 of getting a particular number i.e. 1/6
Slide 6
Communicating probabilities of
climate events with farmers – avoiding
misunderstandings
• But there can be misunderstandings about
what they mean ......
e.g. If the probability of a low rainfall year is 1
in 3 .... and we have had 2 years of normal /
good rainfall,
– does it mean that the next year will have low
rainfall?
– If not, what is the probability of the next year
having low rainfall?
A Training Manual on Use of Climate Information and Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment for
Agricultural Extension Staff in Zimbabwe
Page 126