MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION
Slide 25
El Nino vs other years Makoholi
Longest dry spell in between 1 Dec and
31 Jan
Longest dry spell in period from 1 Dec to 31 January
30 Other
ElNino
20
10
0
1970
1980
1990
Season
2000
2010
Slide 28
2012
PLAN FOR HOW AN EXTENSION WORKER COULD WORK WITH A GROUP OF
FARMERS USING CLIMATE INFORMATION
Well before the season When SCF and El Nino / La Just before
starts eg June
Nina predictions are
season
available eg Sept
starts
Working with groups of farmers Communicate these to farmer
Farmers use
look at whether there are any groups, (including for El Nino and short term 10
climate trends (by looking at
La Nina the ‘strength’)
day forecasts
graphs together with farmers) (In future years it may be sufficient (and refer to
to text this information to a
probabilities
‘contact’ farmer in each group) and forecasts)
Communicate probabilities of Consider implications with farmers
events to farmers in participatory for livelihoods and crops (revisit
way (including discussion on
options you did with farmers in last
implications and management box of previous column).
options)
Include looking at data for El
Support services e.g. extension,
Nino, La Nina years and discuss can now consider any implications
usefulness of this and of SCF
for farmer requirements eg make
Make farmers aware of 10 day available seeds of varieties needed
forecast
Consider livelihood and crop
options for El Nino, La Nina and
‘normal’ years
(It is also possible to revise now the
probabilities of events eg for a
normal year if you want to)
During season
Use 10 day forecasts & refer
to probabilities. Update of
SCF becomes available & by
then is evident whether it is
an El Nino / La Nina year etc
(May be possible for 10 day
forecasts to be sent to contact
farmers and AEWs by sms to
cell phones?)
i) Continue to visit and work
with farmers
ii) Observe and get feedback
on how this process and
support to farmers can be
improved
Visit farmers at end of season
for feedback &see how this
approach can be improved
Slide 26
Looking at El Nino and La Nina years
These can be forecast before the season
El Nino ..... Does it mean lower rainfall at our
site(s)? YES for Makoholi (We need to do the
same analysis for other sites)
La Nina .... Does it mean more rainfall at our site(s)?
NOT SO CLEAR, BUT THEY ARE NOT LIKELY TO
HAVE LOW RAINFALL for Makoholi (We need to
do the same analysis for other sites)
This means that (for Makoholi at least) telling
farmers whether it is going to be El Nino, La
Nina or neither could be very useful
Slide 29
Recap. Our AIM was – To help farmers with
planning and decisions, by providing information
they would like
• In the sessions we covered:
– What is meant by probability (or risk)?
– What would farmers like to know the
probabilities of?
– Ways of working out and communicating
probabilities with farmers
– How we can add value to the Seasonal
Climate Forecast and forecasts of El Nino
and La Nina years
Slide 27
Looking at El Nino and La Nina years
• So in Makoholi, knowing whether it is going to be
an El Nino, La Nina or Normal season is likely to
be very useful to farmers
• One could say that based on this information that
in the area near to Makoholi:
– if it is going to be an El Nino season then it is
likely to be a drier season than in a normal or
La Nina season
– if it is going to be a La Nina season then we can
expect it to be as wet as a ‘normal’ year and
possibly wetter
– AND if it is neither El Nino or La Nina, then it
probably won’t be an extreme year
A Training Manual on Use of Climate Information and Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment for
Agricultural Extension Staff in Zimbabwe
Page 130